AI infrastructure surveillance · analysis completed 2026-10-20 18:49:10 UTC
Oracle
CIK 0001341439 · status watch · overall tier high. Business risk scores 5 of 5 (severe); Liquidity risk scores 4 of 5 (elevated).
Business risk
Engine tier: high · engine tier high
Key factors
- TTM FOCF negative with capex intensity 1.05 >= 0.5 scoring_rules.md 5.4
- disclosed debt-like commitments 322,150,000,000 exceed reported debt 125,337,000,000 scoring_rules.md 5.4
Financial risk
Engine tier: moderate · engine tier moderate
Key factors
- not computable on a TTM basis (ffo_to_debt_pct); tier set from the computable core ratio alone scoring_rules.md 5.2
- no fiscal-year value to measure a move from; position only Corporate Methodology Table 17
- published sensitivity level referenced by S&P, 2026-07-09: not crossed scoring.yaml issuer_triggers.oracle
Liquidity gate
Engine tier: elevated · engine tier elevated
Key factors
- gate state borderline: post-event A/B 1.26x vs 1.2x fail / 1.32x pass; stressed A-B 13,321,530,000 scoring_rules.md 4.3
Governance evidence
Engine tier: not scored · no evidence flags
Key factors
- no governance evidence flags identified in the reviewed filings scoring_rules.md 4.5
Full report
No memo in this snapshot.
S&P stated conditions
S&P's own published conditions, excerpts verified on the live public page. Distances name their basis.
| Side | Condition | Stated level | Engine value | Distance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unfavorable | leverage (sustained)"Expect Oracle to sustain leverage exceeding 4.5x" | 4.5x | 3.69x | 17.9% | 2026-07-09 |
| unfavorable | focf path"Oracle isn’t on a path to generate positive FOCF by fiscal 2029" | n/a | a forecast condition; current FOCF sign is shown beside it, not as a breach; TTM FOCF is currently negative | n/a | 2026-07-09 |
| favorable | focf positive"if Oracle is able to achieve its growth objectives while consistently generating positive FOCF" | n/a | TTM FOCF is currently negative | n/a | 2026-07-09 |
Distances compare as-reported proxies with S&P's adjusted levels unless the basis says otherwise; for CoreWeave and Applied Digital the proxy understates leverage (S&P adjustments for leases and guarantees are not applied). Business rules: internal calibration v0, not validated (scoring_rules.md 5). Open analyst inputs: contracted_acquisitions, contracted_asset_sales, expected_shareholder_distributions, ffo_to_debt_pct, undrawn_committed_facilities_maturing_beyond_12m, working_capital_change_12m.